Texas 2016 Presidential Election Survey

The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston completed live telephone interviews with 1,000 registered voters in Texas who reported they were certain (77 percent) or very likely to vote (23 percent) on or before election day on November 8, 2016.

Interviews were conducted by Consumer Research International between October 7 and October 15, 2016. Interviews were conducted on landline (54 percent) and cell phones (46percent).

The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3 percent (at the 95 percent confidence level). The survey was conducted under the supervision of co-directors Richard Murray, director of the Hobby School’s Survey Research Institute, and Robert Stein, research associate at the Hobby School.

The sample was weighted to reflect the racial and ethnic composition of the electorate based on the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

A. Presidential Candidate Support in Texas

Candidate	Support
Trump	41%
Clinton	38%
Johnson	4%
Stein	1%
None	3%
Don't know	11%
Refused	2%

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 3 points in the presidential election among Texas voters.
The Trump lead of 3 percent is statistically significant.
Since 2000, no Republican presidential candidiate has failed to carry Texas by less than 11 percent points.

B. Presidential Candidate Support by Partisan Identification

Candidate	Democrat	Independent	Republican
Trump	2%	14%	78%
Clinton	80%	30%	5%
Johnson	2%	13%	5%
Stein	1%	4%	0%
None	2%	4%	3%
Don't know	11%	29%	8%
Refused	1%	10%	1%

Eighty percent of self-identified Democrats voters are voting for Clinton, compared to 78 percent of self-identified Republicans who are voting for Trump.
Among Republican voters, 5 percent are voting for Clinton while 2 percent of Democratic voters are voting for Trump.
Eleven percent of Democrats are undecided about who to vote for in November’s presidential contest. Only 9 percent of Republicans are undecided.
More than a quarter (29 percent) of all independents are undecided about who they will vote for in the presidential contest.
Among independents, Clinton leads Trump 30 percent to 14 percent.
Third party candidates Johnson (13 percent) and Stein (4 percent) are receiving 17 percent of the independent vote.

C. Presidential Candidate Support by Gender

Candidate	Male	Female
Trump	44%	38%
Clinton	35%	42%
Johnson	4%	3%
Stein	1%	1%
None	4%	2%
Don't know	9%	14%
Refused	3%	1%

Men favor Trump (44 percent) over Clinton (35 percent).
Women favor Clinton (42 percent) and Clinton (38 percent).

D. Support for Presidential Candidates

by Likelihood of Voting in November’s Election

Candidate	Certain to vote	Very likely to vote
Trump/Pence	42%	37%
Clinton/Kaine	38%	37%
Johnson/Weld	4%	3%
Stein/Baraka	1%	1%
None	3%	3%
Don't know	9%	17%
Refused	2%	2%

Trump leads Clinton by 4 percent among voters who are certain to vote in November. Trump and Clinton are tied (37 percent) among voters who are very likely to vote in November.

E. How would you rate Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?

Candidate	Trump	Clinton
Very Favorable	19%	23%
Somewhat Favorable	21%	18%
Somewhat Unfavorable	8%	7%
Very Unfavorable	48%	47%
No opinion	4%	4%
Don't know the person	0%	0%
Refused	1%	1%

Clinton is rated very unfavorably by 47 percent of Texas voters.
Trump is rated very unfavorably by 48 percent of Texas voters.

F. Which candidate will do a better job handling?

Which candidate will do a better job handling

Texas voters believe Republican Donald Trump will do a better job on immigration (49 percent), fighting terrorism (52 percent) and crime (52 percent), managing the economy (51 percent), and ending gridlock in Washington (44 percent) than Hillary Clinton (34 percent).
Texas voters believe Clinton will do a better job protecting the environment (50 percent) and handling foreign policy (48 percent) than Donald Trump.

G. Who do you think will be the next President of the United States?

Candidate	Democrat	Independent	Republican	All Voters
Hillary Clinton	82%	55%	27%	53%
Donald Trump	2%	9%	42%	23%
Someone else	1%	5%	1%	1%
Do you not know	15%	29%	29%	23%
Refused	1%	2%	1%	1%

Fifty-three percent of Texas voters believe Hillary Clinton will be our nation’s next president. Only 23 percent of all Texas voters believe Donald Trump will be elected president.
Less than half (42 percent) of Texas Republicans believe Donald Trump will be elected president.

H. How frequently do persons vote illegally?

	Democrat	Independent	Republican	All Voters
It is very common	8%	11%	28%	18%
It occurs occasionally	10%	16%	34%	23%
It occurs infrequently	15%	16%	15%	15%
It almost never occurs	55%	30%	10%	30%
Don't Know	13%	27%	12%	13%
Refuse	0%	0%	0%	0%

Eighteen percent of Texas voters believe it is very common that people in Texas who are not legally eligible to vote are indeed voting.
Thirty percent of Texas voters believe illegal voting almost never occurs.
Nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of Republican voters are more likely to believe that persons voting illegally is either very common or occurs occasionally.
Fifty-five percent of Democratic voters believe persons voting illegally almost never occurs.

I. Is a government issued photographic ID required to vote in Texas?

	Anglo	African- American		Hispanic	Asian	Other	All Voters
Yes, it is required	42%	47%	49%		59%	52%	44%
Not required	30%	13%	19%		10%	20%	26%
Don't know	28%	39%	31%		31%	28%	29%
Refuse	1%	1%	0%		0%	0%	1%

Forty-four percent of voters in Texas believe a government issued photographic identification is required to vote in this November’s presidential election in Texas.
Twenty-nine percent of voters don’t know if a photo ID is required to vote.
Twenty-five percent of registered voters in Texas correctly know that a government issued photo ID is not required to vote in this November’s Texas election.
Anglos (42 percent) are significantly more likely than African-American, Hispanic, and Asian voters (47 percent, 49 percent, and 59 percent respectively) to know that a government issued photo ID is not required to vote in this November’s election.

Read the media release.

In the Media

RealClear: Texas: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

The Hill: Poll: Trump's lead narrows to 3 in Texas

CNBC: Texas looks like a battleground as Clinton pulls within 3 points of Trump: Poll

KURV: UH Poll: Trump Lead Over Clinton Down To 3 Points In Texas

The Week: Clinton is within the margin of error of Trump in Texas. TEXAS!

Chron: UH Poll: Donald Trump Leads Hillary Clinton By 3 percentage points in Texas

FiveThirtyEight: Election Update: Clinton's Texas Opportunity (And Her Texas Problem)

CNN: Once a fan, Trump declares: 'I don't believe the polls anymore'

Houston Chronicle: Local undecided voters may stay home

The Washington Post: Could Hillary Clinton actually win Texas?